Ridley’s Rankings Week 16 – Bowling Season

2014BCSBowlsWith the regular season finalized (save for the Army-Navy Classic), I’m going to switch things up a bit from the usual format. Instead of giving commentary on the top 25 teams, I’ll be presenting a grid of all the FBS teams. (If you want facts that are still mostly accurate, you can find my last two rankings here and here.) I’ll also do a quick rundown of the conference rankings as well as provide some (hopefully) interesting facts to help prepare you for Bowl Season.

Speaking of Bowl Season, my goal this year, time willing, is to provide a full primer for all the bowl games, including anticipated victory margin. This will be my first attempt at finding out whether my normalized victory margin is worth the time or just a bunch of useless math. With Bowl Season kicking off in 13 short days, I hope to have part one of the primer issued by Friday.

But before we get to the bowls, let’s take a moment to talk about the dominance of Florida State this season. In my tertiary research, I was unable to come across any team that even approached Florida State’s point differential of +550. To put that number in perspective, the 2001 Miami Hurricanes, who Bill Connelly calls the best team in the last 40 years, scored only 512 points the entire season. The Seminoles have reached their ridiculous level of preeminence by boasting the nation’s second-ranked scoring offense and the top-ranked scoring defense. Using my previously-mentioned scoring system, I have Jimbo Fisher’s team as 21-point victors come January 6th. Simply put, they are not to be trifled with.

Now, onto the conferences …

Conference Rankings

  1. SEC – Average Ranking: 40.07
  2. Pac-12 – 46.83
  3. Big Ten – 50.58
  4. ACC – 52.71
  5. Big 12 – 55.00
  6. American – 70.50
  7. Mountain West – 78.08
  8. MAC – 78.54
  9. Conference USA  – 79.07
  10. Sun Belt – 81.63

As anticipated, there is a sizable gap between the SEC and the rest of the nation. It’s important to remember that these rankings aren’t influenced by public opinion (including polls), consecutive championships or ESPN money. These rankings simply take into account a variety of quantifiable variables and spits out a ranking. So all that hoopla about how great the SEC is actually isn’t hoopla at all.

These conference rankings take the average of every team’s final ranking in my poll. So for example, the average SEC team finished 40th. Because these numbers can become skewed if there’s one team carrying a conference (say, Fresno State) or one team that’s truly ankles and toes below the rest (that’s the opposite of head and shoulders, right?), they could vastly influence the average ranking. So I took a strategy from the BCS standing and eliminated the top and bottom ranked team for each conference.

If we used the revised formula, here’s how the rankings would shake out:

  1. SEC – 38.25
  2. Pac-12 – 44.40
  3. Big Ten – 48.80
  4. ACC – 52.67
  5. Big 12 – 55.38
  6. American – 72.50
  7. Sun Belt – 78.50
  8. Conference USA – 79.42
  9. MAC – 79.55
  10. Mountain West – 80.20

The biggest loser from this approach was the Mountain West conference, which was being carried by Fresno State. Outside of the Bulldogs, who finished 18th, the Mountain West does not have a single team in the top 45. What they do have, however, is three teams who finished 108th or lower, with Hawaii’s one win placing them at 117th.

The conference that gained the most was by far the Sun Belt. While the Sun Belt has an utter dearth of quality teams, they only had one truly horrible team. Georgia State, who finished 125th, singlehandedly brought down it’s conference’s average by six spots. The rest of America’s smallest conference finished between 57th and 89th. In fact, they are the only conference in the country to not have two teams be ranked 90th or lower. Of course, they do only have eight teams …

***

Now for the part we’ve been waiting for. Here are the final rankings, minus the Army-Navy game (for those wondering, a Navy 10-point win would jump them up to 55th with Army dropping to 109th). If you have any questions on these rankings that you can’t find in the explanation, feel free to ask me on Twitter. I will answer all questions that don’t ask whether I was dropped a lot as a child.

Team My Rank BCS Rank Ranking Total Win % Point Differential
Florida State 1 1 100.00 1.000 550
Auburn 2 2 91.94 0.923 210
Alabama 3 3 89.84 0.917 329
Baylor 4 6 87.95 0.917 385
Ohio State 5 7 87.36 0.923 325
Stanford 6 5 86.57 0.846 200
Missouri 7 8 85.05 0.846 215
Michigan State 8 4 83.34 0.923 222
Oregon 9 10 81.66 0.833 302
Oklahoma State 10 13 81.50 0.833 237
South Carolina 11 9 80.49 0.833 169
Oklahoma 12 11 80.29 0.833 126
Arizona State 13 14 80.06 0.769 197
UCF 14 15 79.94 0.917 163
Clemson 15 12 79.65 0.833 229
Louisville 16 18 78.01 0.917 272
UCLA 17 17 76.24 0.750 149
Fresno State 18 20 75.80 0.917 195
LSU 19 16 75.27 0.750 172
Northern Illinois 20 23 75.12 0.923 211
Wisconsin 21 19 74.80 0.750 251
Georgia 22 22 71.53 0.667 105
Duke 23 24 71.41 0.769 90
Washington 24 70.66 0.667 181
Texas A&M 25 21 70.46 0.667 152
Bowling Green 26 70.01 0.769 266
Ball State 27 69.36 0.833 183
Miami (FL) 28 69.22 0.750 119
Virginia Tech 29 67.90 0.667 72
Rice 30 67.25 0.769 110
USC 31 25 66.79 0.692 94
East Carolina 32 66.53 0.750 183
Texas 33 65.55 0.667 68
Iowa 34 65.43 0.667 103
Ole Miss 35 65.15 0.583 74
Houston 36 65.01 0.667 165
Minnesota 37 64.33 0.667 49
Notre Dame 38 64.20 0.667 50
Cincinnati 39 63.83 0.750 166
North Texas 40 63.13 0.667 161
BYU 41 62.66 0.667 120
Nebraska 42 62.40 0.667 87
Michigan 43 62.36 0.583 87
Marshall 44 62.23 0.692 196
Vanderbilt 45 62.22 0.667 54
Boise State 46 62.11 0.667 180
Arizona 47 62.11 0.583 97
Georgia Tech 48 61.50 0.583 167
Penn State 49 60.60 0.583 30
Utah State 50 60.16 0.615 199
Kansas State 51 59.73 0.583 117
Mississippi State 52 59.36 0.500 24
Buffalo 53 58.95 0.667 102
Texas Tech 54 58.51 0.583 54
North Carolina 55 57.45 0.500 83
Boston College 56 57.07 0.583 7
Louisiana-Lafayette 57 56.92 0.667 92
Maryland 58 56.74 0.583 22
Western Kentucky 59 56.62 0.667 75
Toledo 60 56.32 0.583 53
Navy 61 56.21 0.636 74
Middle Tennessee 62 56.03 0.667 54
Tennessee 63 55.41 0.417 -62
Washington State 64 54.79 0.500 -17
UTSA 65 53.64 0.583 -9
Pittsburgh 66 53.31 0.500 -14
Tulane 67 53.18 0.583 47
Oregon State 68 52.99 0.500 29
Syracuse 69 52.59 0.500 -39
UNLV 70 52.10 0.583 -3
Ohio 71 52.09 0.583 16
San Diego State 72 52.07 0.583 -50
Arkansas State 73 52.07 0.583 36
Utah 74 52.00 0.417 14
Old Dominion 75 51.24 0.667 100
Colorado State 76 50.73 0.538 87
San Jose State 77 50.24 0.500 -32
FAU 78 50.10 0.500 60
Indiana 79 48.95 0.417 -5
Rutgers 80 48.59 0.500 -29
South Alabama 81 47.12 0.500 51
Northwestern 82 46.92 0.417 -11
Florida 83 46.07 0.333 -27
Louisiana-Monroe 84 45.43 0.500 -95
Troy 85 45.14 0.500 -22
Wake Forest 86 43.27 0.333 -69
TCU 87 43.10 0.333 -2
Central Michigan 88 42.77 0.500 -64
Texas State 89 42.42 0.500 -41
Southern Methodist 90 41.15 0.417 -89
Akron 91 41.07 0.417 -101
Wyoming 92 39.89 0.417 -65
Illinois 93 39.72 0.333 -69
Arkansas 94 38.84 0.250 -121
West Virginia 95 38.71 0.333 -84
Nevada 96 38.68 0.333 -90
Colorado 97 36.78 0.333 -154
Kent State 98 36.17 0.333 -74
North Carolina State 99 36.08 0.250 -88
Kentucky 100 33.12 0.167 -128
Iowa State 101 32.90 0.250 -134
Memphis 102 32.24 0.250 -61
Kansas 103 31.75 0.250 -198
Tulsa 104 30.93 0.250 -154
Virginia 105 30.58 0.167 -160
Army 106 30.15 0.273 -21
Connecticut 107 30.01 0.250 -116
New Mexico 108 29.71 0.250 -120
Louisiana Tech 109 29.52 0.333 -85
Temple 110 27.98 0.167 -59
South Florida 111 26.44 0.167 -178
Calfornia 112 25.53 0.083 -227
UAB 113 22.08 0.167 -210
Purdue 114 21.55 0.083 -277
Air Force 115 21.04 0.167 -181
UTEP 116 20.56 0.167 -211
Hawaii 117 19.92 0.083 -136
New Mexico State 118 18.97 0.167 -282
Eastern Michigan 119 18.53 0.167 -314
Western Michigan 120 16.40 0.083 -219
Idaho 121 15.85 0.083 -343
Massachusetts 122 14.58 0.083 -256
Southern Miss 123 13.10 0.083 -298
FIU 124 12.88 0.083 -327
Georgia State 125 9.11 0.000 -215
Miami (OH) 126 7.11 0.000 -311
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One thought on “Ridley’s Rankings Week 16 – Bowling Season

  1. Reblogged this on The Hour of Power Show and commented:

    The regular season is over (mostly)! See where your favorite team landed as well as the revealing of conference rankings.

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